Why you shouldn’t take new Nevada poll results at face value
By Chuck Muth
New polling results in Nevada’s gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races came out this week, and let’s just say I’m skeptical.
First, the poll supposedly shows Republican gubernatorial front-runner Joe Lombardo only 4 points ahead of Dean “Never Trump” Heller.
I ain’t buyin’ it. While purely anecdotal, I’m not seeing or hearing ANY groundswell of support for Heller in any corner of the state.
Either the poll has been skewed somehow or there are a lot of dumb Republicans who think a guy who couldn’t even hold his Senate seat as a well-funded incumbent can somehow now beat Gov. Steve Sisolak in November. Maybe a bit of both.
In the U.S. Senate race, the poll purports to show Adam “Trump Endorsed Me!” Laxalt with a 57-19 lead over his primary challenger, Capt. Sam Brown.
What makes me so skeptical of these numbers is the fact that the poll was commissioned by the Club for Growth, which has already not only endorsed Laxalt, but reportedly spent almost a million dollars on a series of mailers that hit just two or three weeks before doing the poll.
I’m sure Laxalt is, indeed, ahead… but not by that much. That said, remember: It’s not the best candidate who necessarily wins; but the best campaign.
And like it or not, the Laxalt folks have been running a much better campaign and messaging operation than Brown — including the obvious involvement by outside special interests in the DC swamp giving aid and comfort to The Chosen One.
But here’s the big thing to keep in mind…
Questions about the polling methodology are generally debated among political insiders. The general public is only going to see the numbers and not question them. And that’s the sort of thing that has the potential create “Big Mo’” for a campaign.
As they say, perception is reality. And Brown needs to change the perception of Laxalt’s inevitability… FAST.
RINO Bagged with Just One Shot!
RINO (Republican in Name Only) Assemblyman Glen Leavitt might not be too bright (flunked out of law school), but even he could read the writing on the wall.
After writing just one column a week ago announcing he was #1 on my list of RINOs who should be culled from the herd this election cycle in his quest for a state senate seat, Leavitt abruptly withdrew from the race on Thursday, citing the de rigueur “family reasons” excuse.
Sorry, Charlie, that dog won’t hunt. He was facing a BRUTAL primary where all his dirty linen would be aired and end up being crushed in the primary by conservative candidate Jeff Stone. This was purely a political decision.
Either way… one down and more to go!
UPDATE: Governor Odds
The first GOP gubernatorial debate in which front-runner Joe Lombardo participated was held this week in Las Vegas. I wasn’t there, but reports I’ve gotten from those who were generally say Lombardo held his own, Joey Gilbert and John Lee performed strong, Guy Nohra was solid and workmanlike, and Dean Heller was flailing all over the place. In light of the debate and recent polling numbers, no matter how suspect, I’m adjusting my odds on the top viable candidates…
—Joe Lombardo: 2-1
—Joey Gilbert: 5-1
—John Lee: 7-1
—Guy Nohra 15-1
—Dean Heller: 100-1
(Disclaimer: Odds are published for entertainment purposes only. No wagering allowed — except for illegal side bets among friends or political adversaries.)
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Chuck Muth is president of Citizen Outreach, publisher of Nevada News & Views and blogs at MuthsTruths.com